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Title:
The MGM spectral analysis of wolf sunspot numbers: preliminary results
Authors:
Tsirulnik, L. B.; Kuznetsova, T. V.; Oraevsky, V. N.
Affiliation:
AA(IZMIRAN, 142092, Moscow region, Troitsk, IZMIRAN, Russia), AB(IZMIRAN, 142092, Moscow region, Troitsk, IZMIRAN, Russia), AC(IZMIRAN, 142092, Moscow region, Troitsk, IZMIRAN, Russia)
Publication:
Advances in Space Research, Volume 20, Issue 12, p. 2365-2368. (AdSpR Homepage)
Publication Date:
00/1997
Origin:
ELSEVIER
Abstract Copyright:
(c) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
DOI:
10.1016/S0273-1177(97)00908-3
Bibliographic Code:
1997AdSpR..20.2365T

Abstract

A method of nonlinear spectral analysis, named by the method of the global minimum (MGM) has been used to find periodicities in the annual Wolf sunspot numbers W, for the 295 year time period from 1700 to 1995. The normalised mean square error of the model fit to the data set Delta =1.01%. The main spectral peak is an unresolved (due to confluence of error bars) triplet at mean period 252 yr. We hypothesise that one of the triplet peaks is connected with the rotation period of a massive 10^th planet, which has to be located at one of Pluto's Lagrange points. The solar magnetic cycle (22 yr) could be the 11^th harmonic of this triplet (22.3x11=245 yr). The most powerful peak in vicinity of 11 years is an unresolved doublet with a mean period of T=10.8 yr. We have demonstrated that the magnetic cycle is non-stationary during the period 1700-1995 and described by doublet with a mean period of T=22.3 yr. Other nonstationary harmonics are discussed, also. The 11.87- yr spectral peak could be associated with the effect of Jupiter. Error bars and the statistical significances of the spectral peaks are presented. The study is ongoing, so that our results will be rendered more precise in the next future.
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